Gold, Silver Surge on Global Fears; $95 Silver Target Eyed

Gold and silver prices are extending their upward march, showing no immediate signs of a slowdown. Global uncertainty, a potent cocktail of geopolitical tensions and U.S. policy concerns, is the primary catalyst. Surendra Mehta, Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), projects aggressive price targets.

Forecasted Peaks

Mehta sees gold heading towards $4,900 and silver aiming for $95, with potential for further gains to $110 if the initial target is decisively breached within 60 to 90 days. He believes the current uptrend is unlikely to falter significantly, with any price dips attracting buyers rather than triggering sell-offs.

Geopolitical and Policy Drivers

A confluence of factors is propelling precious metals. Rising tensions in regions like Iran, Venezuela, and Greenland, alongside mixed U.S. employment data and planned tariffs, are adding to market jitters. Developments related to the U.S. Federal Reserve also weigh on sentiment, creating an environment where safe-haven assets are in demand.

Demand Dynamics

Buying interest for gold is largely being channelled through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with India showing strong inflows. Silver, however, is experiencing robust physical demand across major markets, including China and Dubai. Premiums are being observed in key silver trading hubs, with Dubai quoting nearly a $3 premium and Iran around $2.

Indian Market Premiums

Domestically, Indian prices reflect this global tightness. MCX gold trades approximately ₹1,200 higher than international benchmarks, while silver is nearly ₹6,000 higher. In dollar terms, gold has climbed around $40, and silver is up approximately $2.50–$3.

Supply-Side Worries

Further supporting prices are supply-side concerns. China's restrictions on silver exports and Russia's strategic stance on its gold and oil holdings are contributing to market tightness. Mehta emphasizes that as long as major global players like China, Russia, and the U.S. are not aligned on key economic and geopolitical fronts, prices are expected to remain firm. India, as a price taker, has limited influence on international pricing.