Elara Capital Targets 30,000 Nifty by FY27 on Earnings Surge
Overview
Elara Capital forecasts a 30,000 Nifty by March 2027, projecting nearly 17% upside. The brokerage emphasizes corporate earnings growth, not valuation expansion, as the primary market driver. Expected Nifty earnings per share are set to compound at 14-15% through FY27-FY28, supported by macro factors and a broadening sectoral recovery.
Elara Capital Eyes 30,000 Nifty by FY27
Elara Capital has set an ambitious target for the benchmark Nifty 50 index, projecting it to reach 30,000 by the financial year ending March 2027. This forecast represents a potential upside of nearly 17% from current levels.
The brokerage firm believes the market's trajectory over the next two years will be predominantly shaped by an improvement in corporate earnings rather than significant expansion in stock valuations.
Earnings Compounding Drives Outlook
Following a subdued start to the current financial year (FY26), Elara Capital anticipates Nifty earnings to compound at a robust 14% to 15% annually through FY27 and FY28. The firm estimates Nifty earnings per share to climb from an anticipated ₹1,096 in FY26 to ₹1,281 in FY27 and further to ₹1,463 in FY28.
This growth is expected to be underpinned by a softer earnings base in FY26 and a confluence of supportive macro and policy drivers. Key among these are projected double-digit nominal GDP growth in FY27, a measured pace of fiscal consolidation coupled with sustained pro-consumption policies, and a benign interest rate environment with ample liquidity.
FY26 Headwinds and FY27 Rebound
However, Elara acknowledges that FY26 earnings could face pressure. Challenges such as pricing fatigue in consumer staples and healthcare sectors, subdued growth in IT services due to weaker global demand, and regulated returns in utilities are anticipated.
Earnings growth is forecast to re-accelerate meaningfully from FY27 as the transmission of interest rate cuts improves, consumption picks up, and operating leverage benefits companies. The brokerage also highlights a significant improvement expected in the breadth of earnings growth.
Broadening Sectoral Participation
In FY26, only a handful of sectors—consumer discretionary, telecom, energy, and materials—are projected to achieve double-digit profit growth, signaling a narrow, cyclical-led recovery. By FY27, this picture is expected to broaden considerably. Elara predicts that seven sectors will deliver double-digit profit growth, with industrials (17%), consumer staples (11%), and financials (11%) joining the ranks of materials and discretionary sectors.
This expansion in earnings growth across more industries is seen as a signal of a more balanced and sustainable market recovery.
