Iran Protests Stoke Oil Prices; Venezuela Supply Caps Gains
Overview
Oil prices extended Monday's gains amid escalating unrest in Iran, raising fears of supply disruptions for up to 1.9 million barrels per day. However, impending crude exports from Venezuela are capping the rally, with major companies preparing to resume shipments. Brent crude hovered near $63.65 a barrel.
Iran Protests Fuel Supply Fears
Oil prices extended their climb on Monday, driven by growing apprehension that intensifying protests in Iran could disrupt supply from the major OPEC producer. Brent crude futures rose 31 cents to $63.65 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude reached $59.42 a barrel, up 30 cents.
Both benchmarks registered gains exceeding 3% last week, marking their most substantial weekly advance since October. This surge coincided with an intensified crackdown by Iran's clerical establishment on the largest demonstrations seen in the country since 2022. A rights group reported that the civil unrest has claimed over 500 lives.
Situation Puts Exports at Risk
Analysts at ANZ noted concerns over potential worker strikes within the oil industry amid the ongoing protests. "The situation puts at least 1.9 million barrels per day of oil exports at risk of disruption," the analysts stated in a research note. U.S. President Donald Trump has previously indicated a willingness to intervene if force is used against protesters and is expected to meet senior advisors to discuss potential options regarding Iran.
Venezuelan Exports Offer Price Cap
Despite the supply fears stemming from Iran, efforts to expedite oil exports from Venezuela are acting as a moderating influence on price increases. Following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, the government in Caracas is reportedly preparing to release as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States. This development has prompted oil companies to expedite the process of securing tankers and organizing operations for shipping the crude from Venezuelan ports.
