Adani Power vs NTPC: 8 Factors for 2026 Investment Showdown
Overview
Indian power giants Adani Power and NTPC present contrasting investment profiles for 2026. Adani Power shows aggressive stock growth and capacity expansion, while state-run NTPC offers stability, regulated tariffs, and consistent dividends. Investors face a choice between high-risk, high-reward growth versus steady, predictable returns in the evolving energy landscape.
Stocks Mentioned
Adani Power Surges Ahead, NTPC Offers Stability in 2026 Outlook
Indian energy investors are closely scrutinizing two power sector behemoths, Adani Power and NTPC, as they head into 2026. The comparison highlights starkly different business models, performance metrics, and strategic trajectories.
Stock Performance and Valuation Divergence
Adani Power has significantly outperformed NTPC over the past year, gaining 59.37% compared to NTPC's 13.33%. Over five years, Adani Power's surge of over 1,200% dwarfs NTPC's 236% rise. However, recent trading shows consolidation, with Adani Power slipping 0.68% in the past month, while NTPC advanced 4.32%. Adani Power trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.4x, versus NTPC's 14.7x, reflecting its growth premium.
Revenue and Profitability Trends
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Q2 FY26), Adani Power reported revenue of ₹13,639 crore and profit after tax (PAT) of ₹2,906 crore, marking a 12% year-on-year decline in profit. Half-year (H1 FY26) revenue stood at ₹27,807 crore with PAT at ₹6,212 crore. NTPC, with its larger scale, reported Q2 FY26 revenue of ₹40,689 crore and PAT of ₹4,653 crore, remaining stable. H1 FY26 revenue was ₹84,022 crore with PAT at ₹9,428 crore, showing a slight increase.
Business Models: Contracts vs. Regulation
The fundamental difference lies in offtake visibility. NTPC operates under a regulated, cost-plus tariff framework, ensuring a defined return on equity and stability. Its availability remained above 90% in Q2 FY26, supporting consistent billing. Adani Power relies on long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) secured through competitive bidding. While these offer visibility, tariffs are fixed, lacking the regulatory pass-through protections.
Capacity Expansion and Renewable Exposure
NTPC Group boasts a current installed capacity of 83.9 GW, with a target of over 130 GW by 2032, including a significant and growing renewable energy portfolio. Adani Power operates around 18 GW, predominantly thermal, with plans to reach 42 GW by FY32, largely through thermal expansions. Adani Power's renewable exposure resides with other Adani Group entities, leaving its listed entity tied to thermal dispatch.
Financial Health and Shareholder Returns
Adani Power's debt increased due to recent acquisitions, impacting depreciation and finance costs. The company retained cash for expansion and executed a 1:5 stock split to improve liquidity. NTPC maintained a stable balance sheet, funding capital expenditure and dividends. It declared interim dividends for FY26 and a final dividend for FY25, prioritizing shareholder returns through payouts.
Strategic Choice for Investors
Ultimately, the Adani Power versus NTPC debate presents investors with a choice: Adani Power for its aggressive growth narrative and strong recent stock performance, or NTPC for its predictable earnings, dividend income, and stability derived from a regulated utility model.
