Gold Production Poised for Record High in 2025, WGC Reports
Overview
The World Gold Council anticipates record mined gold output in 2025, projecting a surge based on first three quarters' data showing a 16-tonne year-on-year rise to 2,717 tonnes. Key drivers include expanding mines in Canada, increased artisanal and small-scale mining, and rising margins. However, potential headwinds from sanctions and operational suspensions could temper growth.
Mined gold production is on track to hit a new record in 2025, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Data from the first three quarters of the year indicates a significant uptick, with output totaling 2,717 tonnes, marking a 16-tonne increase from the previous year.
Drivers of Increased Output
Several factors are fueling this expansion. Rising profit margins for producers are a key element, alongside new mining projects, notably in Canada. Operational expansions in other regions and a rise in output from artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) operations are also contributing substantially to global supply.
Potential Challenges Ahead
Despite the positive trajectory, headwinds exist. International sanctions could impede development timelines for certain projects. Furthermore, the suspension of several key operations has already impacted global output and may continue to constrain growth throughout 2025. This follows a period of relative stability, where mined gold production saw near-zero year-on-year change between 2018 and 2024, despite short-term disruptions from the pandemic and industrial actions.
Supply Outlook
In 2024, mined gold production reached 3,645 tonnes, a slight increase of 4 tonnes year-on-year, placing it just below the 2018 peak of 3,658 tonnes. Amidst surging gold prices, the output increase has been only moderate, prompting questions about industry capacity limits. The WGC, in conjunction with Metals Focus analysis, forecasts a gradual plateauing of global mined gold production over the next few years, rather than a sharp peak and decline. While new projects and ramp-ups are expected to provide ongoing support, declining ore grades, operational disruptions, and increasing capital expenditure costs for miners may limit potential production gains.
