Deloitte: India's GDP to Grow 7.5-7.8% This Fiscal
Overview
Deloitte India forecasts the nation's GDP to expand by 7.5-7.8% in the current fiscal year (FY2025-26), driven by strong festive demand and services activity. Growth is expected to moderate to 6.6-6.9% in FY2026-27 due to a high base and global uncertainties, but India's resilience, policy reforms, and trade diplomacy are highlighted as key supports.
India's Economic Outlook
Deloitte India projects robust GDP growth of 7.5-7.8% for the current fiscal year, FY2025-26. This expansion is underpinned by strong festive season demand and vigorous activity in the services sector. The firm anticipates this growth trajectory, however, will moderate to 6.6-6.9% in FY2026-27. This adjustment is attributed to a higher base effect from the preceding year and persistent global economic uncertainties.
Resilience Amid Global Headwinds
Despite significant global challenges, including trade disruptions and policy shifts in major economies, India's economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in the first half of FY2025-26, clocking 8% Real GDP growth. Deloitte India attributes this strength to sustained pro-growth policies. Policymakers responded to external risks with measures like tax exemptions, interest rate cuts, and GST rationalization, bolstering domestic demand. Favorable inflation trends and strategic trade agreements also provided essential support.
Future Policy Focus and Trade Diplomacy
Looking ahead to FY2026-27, the policy emphasis is expected to shift from demand-side measures to supply-side reforms. Deloitte India highlights a focus on supporting Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and developing tier-2 and tier-3 cities as new growth engines. The nation has actively pursued trade diplomacy, signing agreements with the UK, New Zealand, Oman, and initiating negotiations with Israel, while the EFTA deal became operational. These partnerships aim to diversify exports, unlock manufacturing potential, and expand India's services footprint globally, boosting foreign direct investment. A crucial India-US trade deal is anticipated by the end of the current fiscal year, expected to stimulate foreign investment and stabilize the rupee.
