Bagga Warns: US-India Trade Deal Risks Job Losses in Key Sectors
Overview
Market expert Ajay Bagga issues a stark warning, suggesting the US-India trade deal could lead to significant job losses in India's textiles, gems, jewellery, and leather industries. Bagga is skeptical about the deal's materialization, hinting at US strategic maneuvering, and also voiced disappointment over the criminal investigation against Fed Governor Jerome Powell.
Ajay Bagga, a prominent market expert, has issued a stern warning regarding the ongoing India-US trade deal negotiations, projecting potential job losses across several key Indian sectors. Bagga expressed strong skepticism about the likelihood of a favorable trade pact materializing, suggesting that the United States might be strategically positioning India as an example.
Trade Deal Risks Identified
Bagga indicated that he does not foresee the trade deal progressing rapidly, citing a lack of urgency from the US side. He posited that any removal of the existing 25% punitive tariff on India might be contingent on a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The expert's core concern is the "very big risk for India," anticipating second-order effects such as job losses in the textiles, gems & jewellery, and leather sectors. The impact on India's crucial service exports is also flagged as a major risk.
Amidst speculation about the deal's stalled progress, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal urged for national trust, responding to reports that negotiations failed due to a lack of communication from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Goyal, speaking at NDTV Power Play, advised reliance on domestic confidence over foreign statements, particularly after comments from United States Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested Washington was moving ahead with other countries.
Concerns Over Powell Investigation
Beyond trade, Bagga also conveyed significant disappointment over the criminal investigation launched against U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell. He described the situation as "very disappointing," especially Powell's assertion that the charges are political and aimed at influencing monetary policy. Powell stated that the Federal Reserve must set interest rates based on economic conditions, not presidential preferences or intimidation. Bagga suggested that markets might react, drawing parallels to previous instances where bond markets showed distress. He also touched upon geopolitical tensions, noting that U.S. military action against Iran seemed imminent.
