Goldman Sachs Sees 25% RIL Upside on Venezuela Oil, Refining Strength
Overview
Goldman Sachs maintains a 'Buy' rating on Reliance Industries Ltd., setting a ₹1,835 price target implying 25% upside. While retail growth may slow, the energy division's refining performance is expected to surge, particularly if Venezuelan crude sourcing becomes feasible, potentially boosting margins significantly.
Stocks Mentioned
Goldman Sachs Bullish on Reliance Industries Ahead of Q3 Results
Goldman Sachs has reiterated its 'Buy' recommendation for Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), projecting a substantial 25% upside potential with a price target of ₹1,835 per share. The brokerage firm anticipates that the energy giant's refining business will significantly outperform, offsetting potential moderation in retail earnings during the third quarter.
Refining Powerhouse Potential
The outlook for RIL's refining segment appears robust, supported by persistently tight product markets expected to persist through 2027. Goldman Sachs noted that improving crude oil differentials, including those from the Middle East, are already contributing to strong refining margins. A key catalyst for further margin expansion lies in the potential resumption of crude oil sourcing from Venezuela. A spokesperson for Reliance Industries confirmed on January 9 that the company is awaiting clarity on access to Venezuelan oil for non-U.S. buyers and intends to proceed in a compliant manner should opportunities arise.
Retail Slowdown, Telecom Growth
Despite the positive energy outlook, Goldman Sachs has trimmed its near-term retail growth assumptions for RIL. This adjustment stems from expectations of weak discretionary consumer spending, accounting for base effects, and the timing dynamics of the recent festive season. However, the brokerage anticipates strong double-digit EBITDA growth in the telecom business, projecting an 18% CAGR between FY26 and FY30, largely keeping overall earnings forecasts for Reliance unchanged.
Analyst Consensus and Stock Performance
Reliance Industries is slated to announce its third-quarter financial results on January 16, 2026. The consensus among market watchers remains strongly in favor of the company. Out of 37 analysts covering RIL, an overwhelming 35 recommend a 'Buy', with only two advocating for a 'Sell' rating. Shares of Reliance Industries closed Thursday's session down 2.23% at ₹1,470.70, trading approximately 9% below their all-time high.
